By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv, Ukraine, Mar 5 (EFE) – The United States’ suspension of military aid to Ukraine will not cause a battlefield catastrophe in the coming months, but it may affect Ukraine’s defenses and lead to more destruction of cities and civilian infrastructure by Russia’s drones and missiles, Ukrainian officials and military analysts agree.
The continued increase in domestic military production and the growing involvement of European partners have made Ukraine less dependent on the United States.
However, the US retains a key role in supplying armored combat vehicles, air defense and artillery systems, ammunition, and spare parts, and provides critical military communications and real-time intelligence.
Ukraine’s civilians at risk
The shortage of medium- and long-range air defense missiles could become the biggest challenge, argues Viktor Kevlyuk, a reserve colonel and military analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies.
“This will lead to a greater scale of destruction of civilian areas and critical infrastructure,” he writes for lb.ua.
The US-made Patriot system is the country’s only shield against Russia’s ballistic missiles and, to a large extent, hypersonic Kinzhal missiles.
The US decision to halt aid will complicate maintenance and repairs and risks leaving Ukraine without enough ammunition, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told local media.
It is unknown how many missiles Ukraine still has, but Russia could use the current situation to intensify missile and drone strikes, warns military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko.
It won’t be possible to quickly replace American air defenses because the similar Franco-Italian SAMP/T system is produced only in small quantities, Kovalenko wrote for the Information Resistance Group.
Impact on Ukraine’s military
The US has provided Ukraine with more than half of its howitzers, nearly half or more of its rocket launchers, and hundreds of its armored fighting vehicles.
Ukraine will struggle to replace gun barrels, which wear out quickly under intense frontline use, and to find spare parts for M2 Bradly infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, Kevliuk writes.
No more ammunition for HIMARS and no more ATACMS missiles will allow Russia to operate its frontline military logistics without fear, the expert believes.
Moreover, the re-export of any American-made weapons by third countries could become impossible, which would jeopardize the expected deliveries of F-16 fighter jets from a number of European countries.
The efficiency of Ukraine’s defense could drop without Starlink Internet, provided by Elon Musk’s company, and the real-time exchange of information about Russian troops and airstrikes.
“Starlinks are very important. We have alternatives, but they won’t be as convenient and effective,” a source in the Ukrainian army’s artillery unit told EFE.
Painful, but not yet a disaster
The end of US aid to Ukraine is “critical and painful” but not a catastrophe if Ukraine and its European partners quickly ramp up defense production, Sergiy Rahmanin, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense committee, told Ukrainian media.
Russia’s battlefield advantage won’t be as strong as a year ago when Ukraine fought for almost six months without US assistance, Kovalenko stressed.
Ukraine’s increasing use of homemade drones and Russia’s acute shortage of tanks and other armored vehicles will limit Russia’s frontline gains, he believes.
“Trump’s decision is particularly cynical as it comes at a time when Russia’s failure to achieve its goals militarily is becoming increasingly evident amid Ukraine’s successful counterattacks,” military analyst Mykola Bielieskov wrote on X.
According to analysts, doubts among Ukraine’s partners about its ability to succeed risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The US pause in feels like a stab in the back for many Ukrainians, who see the country’s defense as a t fight with their Western partners against evil, sociologist Anton Grushetski told EFE.
But it could also rally Ukrainians to fight for their country’s survival, he believes.
46% of Ukrainians believe they can defend themselves without US help; 36% disagree, according to Gradus research. EFE
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