By Indira Guerrero and Amjad Ali
New Delhi/Islamabad, May 5 (EFE).- The specter of a major military confrontation looms over South Asia once again, following a deadly terrorist attack in India-istered Kashmir that claimed 26 lives, sparking tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan.
While Pakistani leaders have declared their commitment not to start a war, they have also promised a strong response in case of provocation, while apprehensions of an armed conflict loom large on the horizon.
India ranks higher in conventional strength, with about 1.46 million active military personnel, compared to Pakistan’s 654,000.
India also has an advantage in armored vehicles and aircraft, operating more than 4,200 tanks and 2,229 military aircraft, including 513 fighter jets, while Pakistan has around 2,627 tanks and 1,399 military aircraft.
In of nuclear capability, as of early 2025, India is estimated to possess around 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan possesses approximately 170.
The former chief of India’s foreign intelligence agency RAW and renowned expert on Kashmir, Amarjit Singh Dulat, speaking to EFE, underlined that “war is the worst option.”
“I don’t think we’re going to have a war. No one wants a war, especially the generals, because that would only mean devastation. In war there are no winners,” said Dulat.
Following the Kashmir attack, both nations have displayed a notable military posturing. The Pakistani armed forces have conducted intensive military exercises on the ground, emphasizing their operational readiness to face perceived threats.
Meanwhile, exchanges of fire along the highly sensitive Line of Control (LoC) – the de facto border between India and Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir region – have intensified, further aggravating the already volatile situation.
People residing near the Loc have been proactively digging trenches as a security measure and renovating government-built bunkers for shelter in case of conflict.
As for possible Indian responses, Dulat suggested the possibility of covert actions. “I think there will be some action, something will be done, but it will be more covert than open. Artillery has already been fired at the Line of Control,” he said.
Pakistan has launched a campaign of diplomatic rapprochement, working with various countries to reduce tension with India.
Meanwhile, India has been under considerable internal pressure to offer a strong response to the attack.
However, its international partners, including the United States, have warned against actions that could lead to a wider conflict in the region.
The current crisis evokes parallels with previous escalations. In 2019, India carried out air strikes 12 days after a suicide bombing in Pulwama, Kashmir, that killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers.
Before that, in 2016, India launched surgical attacks across the LoC following an attack on Uri. These incidents have set a pattern in which India resorts to cross-border and air attacks in response to perceived provocations.
Pakistani defense analyst Mushahid Hussain believes that a full-scale war remains unlikely because of the prohibitively high stakes and the active involvement of the international community.
“There may be some low-intensity incident, provoked by the Indian side, which is inciting its people with war hysteria,” he added.
Experts warn that if India were to initiate significant military action, Pakistan would likely defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity with all means at its disposal.
Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine includes the option of the use, or threat of use, of nuclear weapons in a confrontation, especially if their territorial integrity or existence is threatened by a conventional attack.
“Even conventional war is enough to cause great destruction. Those who fought in the 1965 India-Pakistan War, sometimes in hand-to-hand combat, will tell you how terrible and terrifying it was,” Dulat said.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s top military spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif, has warned that Pakistan is willing to go as far as it takes to protect its sovereignty and security.
While a large-scale nuclear war remains a nightmare that both sides are likely to avoid, the risk of miscalculation and escalation stemming from conventional confrontations persists, leaving the region vulnerable to a major armed conflict. EFE
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