By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- After the talks in Turkey have not achieved a ceasefire and underlined the divergences between the positions of Kyiv and Moscow, Ukraine is preparing for a summer of fighting and diplomatic efforts aimed at overcoming the dual pressure from the United States and Russia.
The outcome of the talks in Istanbul has not been a surprise to Ukraine’s leadership and analysts, with Moscow’s reported demands, including the retreat of the defending forces from the partially occupied regions, remaining unchanged and unacceptable to Kyiv.
With Russia convinced of its advantage on the battlefield, the sides are still expected to engage in an uneasy dialogue, directly or indirectly, with some symbolic steps, aimed at Washington, such as the exchange of prisoners of war likely to follow.
Under pressure
Kyiv’s main focus has been to avoid being singled out by the US president Donald Trump, who has been pushing for a quick end to the war, as the main obstacle to peace.
“Trump wants a quick diplomatic win for himself, which could only come at the expense of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee, told EFE.
“It is our task not to let this happen, which means we have to act cooperatively, while protecting our core interests, to prevent Trump from acting against us,” he underlined.
Kyiv hopes that the US eventually does the right thing – and stays committed to Ukraine – after trying every other option. At the very least, Ukraine hopes to avoid Trump’s ire and to win more time for it and its European partners to strengthen themselves and weaken Russia through more sanctions.
Russia on the offensive
In the meantime, Moscow aims to “feign negotiations” to avoid stronger sanctions from Washington, Ukrainian officials and analysts are certain.
Moscow believes it can still move ahead on the battlefield, despite its advances slowing down. Despite staunch resistance by Ukraine, it can still rely on numerical advantage and use the lush greenery during the summer to make it harder for the defenders to repel constant infantry attacks.
The cost in killed and wounded soldiers doesn’t bother Moscow for as long as the number of new recruits remains higher, according to military analysts.
Supplies of artillery from North Korea and access to military technology from China make it optimistic about its chances of outlasting its partners’ commitment to Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia seeks to increase pressure on Kyiv through the use of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, ever more capable of evading air defenses, in attacks against Ukrainian cities.
If Russia fails to achieve a breakthrough and conditions on the battlefield become less favourable in the autumn, it may eventually seek a ceasefire in order to recover, Ukrainian analysts said.
However, its core aim, to completely subjugate Ukraine, through both political and military means, would remain unchanged.
Ukraine’s resilience
While Ukraine and its army, exhausted by years of fighting in unfavourable conditions, face several challenges, the failure of the talks in Turkey to bring peace closer changes little in its strategy.
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians remain open to finding a negotiated solution, yet reject recognizing Russian authority over the occupied territories and accepting its other demands.
Ceding to Russian ultimatums in exchange for a potential ceasefire would be widely seen as a capitulation that would only offer a temporary reprieve to Ukraine at the cost of its future.
With no solution to contain the Russian threat in the long term, millions of displaced Ukrainians will be unlikely to return, and even more could flee, analysts warned.
While hoping to maintain at least some from Donald Trump, Ukraine continues working to strengthen its army and defense industry.
To do so, it relies on both domestic innovation and investment from its European partners. EFE
ra/dgp
