By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- The daring operation against Russian military aviation boosts morale in the invaded country and demonstrates its ability to inflict heavy blows against the enemy through asymmetric operations, as Ukraine seeks to strengthen its position to force Russia into genuine negotiations.
“Finally, there is some justice after so many nights of explosions and news of our victims,” Olena Semenyak, a Kyiv-based copywriter who survived a missile strike on her residential block over a year ago, told EFE.
Like many Ukrainians, she celebrated the news of dozens of damaged or destroyed Russian planes, with cake and coffee, after making a “traditional” donation to Ukraine’s defense forces with equipment.
“I’m happy because this boosts the morale of Ukrainians exhausted by daily Russian attacks,” said Olena Mykula, a digital designer from Lviv.
“Once again we showed Russia and the world that, even with fewer resources, we can effectively resist such a giant and are not afraid,” she told EFE.
Strategic implications
Ukrainian analysts and politicians describe the operation, which Ukraine’s Security Service said destroyed or damaged over 40 Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft, as a profound humiliation for Russia with significant military and political consequences.
“This strike challenges the harmful narrative of the past three and a half years that this war is unwinnable,” wrote political analyst Alyona Getmanchuk for Ukraine’s New Europe Center.
It demonstrates that “peace through strength” can be applied to Russia through decisive action, she added.
“The pride of Russian aviation”, used to intimidate Europe and part of Russia’s nuclear shield, “was destroyed by cheap drones,” wrote Solomia Bobrovska, a Ukrainian deputy and member of the parliament’s defense committee, on Facebook.
While the full impact is yet to be confirmed, the operation is likely to reshape Russian leadership’s calculations of the war’s costs and benefits, wrote “Tatarigami,” founder of Frontelligence Insight, on X.
“Though not directly altering the battlefield, such operations erode Russia’s long-term strategic assets, many of which are Soviet-era legacies that Russia cannot replace soon,” he noted.
More is needed to force Russia to seek peace
Despite the operation’s success, many Ukrainians remain cautious about overestimating its immediate impact on the war’s trajectory.
“This operation affects Russia’s ability to wage war, but they still have a lot of weapons and soldiers,” said Olena Mykula from Lviv.
Like most Ukrainians, she expects “nothing new” from the talks with Russia, which renewed in Istanbul on Monday, noting that Russia must face further economic and military setbacks to consider negotiations seriously.
However, she believes that a combination of more such operations, enhanced Ukrainian drone and missile capabilities, and Western sanctions against Russia could change the course of the war. “Only when we match Russia’s strength, will they perhaps be ready to negotiate,” she suggested.
The operation also fuels hopes that Ukraine’s allies will follow its example and act more decisively to weaken Russia and hold it able.
“Russia’s lack of punishment for its crimes still weighs heavily on my mind,” said Olena Semenyak from Kyiv.
Hopes for the future
Conducted in full secrecy well into the fourth year of the war, the complicated operation underscores Ukraine’s growing institutional strength and “changes the conflict’s logic” by proving Russia cannot attack Ukraine without painful retaliation, emphasized Mustafa Nayem, a prominent Ukrainian army veteran, on Facebook.
“Ukraine not only defends and asks for help, but also acts when necessary, it has the ability and right to do so,” he wrote.
“If Ukrainian special forces can deliver such surprises of global scale today, they certainly have more in store for tomorrow,” underlined military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, writing for the Information Resistance Group.
The rising cost of the war may eventually force the Kremlin to face a stark reality: continuing the conflict not only worsens Russia’s position in Ukraine but accelerates its own strategic decline, “Tatarigami” concluded. EFE
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