By Indira Guerrero
New Delhi, May 1 (EFE) – A deadly attack in Kashmir has pushed India and Pakistan to the edge once again, stoking fears of military escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Yet, even as threats fly and tempers flare, both nations appear locked in a familiar cycle of provocation and restraint — one where the path to war is always visible but rarely crossed.
India swiftly blamed Pakistan for the Apr. 22 attack that killed 26 people, accusing it of orchestrating the rare assault on civilians, though it has yet to provide concrete evidence. Pakistan has categorically denied the allegation.
In response, Islamabad warned that it has “credible intelligence” pointing to an imminent Indian military incursion within hours.
Despite this heightened rhetoric and the real risk of limited military action, analysts say a full-scale war between the nuclear-armed neighbors remains a distant scenario.
“I don’t expect a large-scale war between India and Pakistan. I see continued low-level clashes instead,” political analyst and former Indian government adviser Sanjaya Baru told EFE.
So why does conflict always seem to be on the brink, yet never fully explode into war?
Tensions Simmer, Escalation Lurks
The India-Pakistan relationship is locked in a cycle of hostility, where each flashpoint risks spiraling out of control. The recent clashes along the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides Kashmir between the two neighbors, following the attack are the latest example.
This tit-for-tat dynamic, although often contained, carries the danger of miscalculation.
In 2019, after a suicide bombing killed dozens of Indian paramilitary forces, India responded with airstrikes in Pakistan, triggering retaliatory action and a brief dogfight.
During such crises, leaders on both sides face intense domestic pressure to project strength, fueled by nationalist sentiments.
“At best, India may attempt a limited pushback along the Line of Control, similar to what China did to India in 2020,” Baru said, outlining a scenario where India could consider a tactical incursion for territorial advantage.
However, he warned that “both countries could make grave errors if hardliners dominate the decision-making,” with the risk that misjudgments under pressure could escalate into broader conflict.
Firewalls: Nuclear Deterrence, Economic Costs
There are several powerful deterrents that stand in the way of a full-scale war.
Nuclear deterrence remains the strongest brake. With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) makes any large-scale conflict potentially catastrophic for both.
Economic fallout is another constraint. A prolonged war would devastate both economies. For Pakistan, already in the grip of a financial crisis, stability is essential to sustain its bailout program with the International Monetary Fund.
“India also doesn’t want the situation to escalate too far, as that would internationalize the Kashmir issue. Meanwhile, Pakistan is grappling with internal instability—from the economy to insurgency,” said a political analyst based in Indian Kashmir, who asked not to be named.
The Waterfront: A New Battleground
One of the most alarming developments in the latest standoff is New Delhi’s move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a decades-old agreement that governs water sharing between the two nations.
The rivers covered by the treaty are lifelines for Pakistan, and Islamabad has warned that any attempt by India to halt water flow would be considered an “act of war.”
While the short-term impact of the suspension may be limited, the long-term consequences could be severe.
Pakistan is already one of the world’s most water-stressed nations. Climate change, mismanagement, and a growing population have worsened the crisis. If India withdraws from the treaty entirely, it could build new dams and divert more water for domestic use—further choking Pakistan’s already fragile water supply. EFE
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